And the Razzie Goes To...

So after watching the Badgers piss another game away I started to think about what else I was going to do with my life tonight. Then I remembered it's the Academy Awards... basically a giant Hollywood Circle Jerk that I of course will watch - and inevitably enjoy. I've seen all the movies and major nominated roles so here I will do my best to guess. I'll say who would win if I was picking the winners (I'm really not sure why I'm not) and then who will probably win.

If I Picked the Winners
Best Supporting Actress - Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona (I should have picked this category by putting the names on a dart board and throwing it blindly.)
Best Supporting Actor - Josh Brolin, Milk (to be completely honest this is Heath Ledger's award, I just think it's a completely one note performance. Sure it was good but the caliber of performance needed to play Dan White perfectly in Milk is higher than needed for The Joker)
Best Actress - Melissa Leo, Frozen River (for a small art house pic I was surprised to see Leo nominated - but it is the best performance by an actress this year.)
Best Actor - Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (this is any one's award, Rourke, Penn, Langella, and Jenkins all deserve the award... and I'm actually pulling for Richard Jenkins, but Rourke's tour de force as The Ram needs to be recognized)
Best Director - David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (actually the best achievement in directing this year is probably Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon - because he turned 4 conversations into one of the more exciting movies of the year. I just think from a technical perspective David Fincher crafted an absolutely gorgeous movie. Even though it's a little too long Ben Button has a style all it's own that is classic Fincher and it really is a well deserved award)
Best Picture - Frost/Nixon (even though I would vote The Wrestler - it wasn't nominated. As I mentioned earlier this is one of the more thrilling movies I saw this year, and is sitting at #2 (behind The Wrestler) on my Best of the 2008 List)

What Will Probably Win
Best Supporting Actress - Viola Davis, Doubt (once again - dart board)
Best Supporting Actor - Heath Deadger, The Dark Knight (see what I did there?)
Best Actress - Kate Winslet, The Reader (it's hard to bet against Meryl Streep, but after 6 noms I think this is Winslet's year)
Best Actor - Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (I almost put Sean Penn, but Rourke was just too good.)
Best Director - Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire (everyone is super wet for this movie and I just don't understand it)
Best Picture - Slumdog Millionaire (I actually got pissed off typing that. Slumdog might be one of the more overrated movies I've seen in a long time, it's essentially the Terrell Owens of the movie world. Sure it's 2/3 of one of the more original movies in a while, but the end just slips into every fucking cliche love story ever made. If this takes home gold (which it will) it's like when Shakespeare in Love won over Saving Private Ryan, Thin Red Line and Life is Beautiful, or if (I mean when) the Bucks make the playoffs under .500 and then win the title... it just makes no God damned sense.

And in honor of Slumdog probably winning The Oscar - this post won't have a legitimate ending either.